Saturday, August 11, 2007

Miami Dolphins season preview

The Dolphins kick off their pre-season tonight at home against the Jags and even though we won't see Joey Porter in action, we'll see the debut of John Beck and also 4 rookies from the draft class getting a start (Ted Ginn, Paul Soliai, Drew Mormino, Samson Satele).

I'm not going to do this preview by position or by unit but instead I'm just going to highlight some things that I think will be a factor this season.

  • It's Ronnie Brown's offense now.
This will be Brown's third year in the league and in my opinion this is the year where he grows into a great back. Some people aren't convinced that Brown is going to be the top-tier back that Miami envisions him to be, but I think he will be and for a few reasons.

In his rookie year, Brown played 15 games, split carries with Ricky Williams and racked up 907 rushing yards on a 4.4 ypc. average. He also caught 32 passes for 232 yards.
In his second year he played 13 games due to injury yet he rushed for 1008 yards on a 4.2 ypc. average and he also added 33 catches for 276 yards.

If you project those numbers of last season over 16 games, they are very solid and a nice step up from his rookie season. And keep in mind that Brown has done this while playing behind a putrid offensive line and in one of the weaker offenses in the game. So imagine what this guy can do once he grows into his own and actually plays in a decent offense. You now see why Miami drafted him second overall with such high hopes.

Insert Cam Cameron. Cameron has worked with LaDanian Tomlinson and has helped Tomlinson raise his game to unbelievable heights. Granted LT is an amazing back that plays in a great offense, but you can't deny that Cameron's play-calling also helped in that mix. And Cameron will now bring his play-calling and style to Miami where he'll do his best to make Brown the focal point of the offense, which he should be.

That also brings me to my last point of why Ronnie will be huge this year. It's his offense now and he knows it. In his rookie year he had Ricky Williams to share carries with. Last season there were talks of maybe bringing Ricky back and he also had Sammie Morris to share some carries with. But both men are gone and Ronnie knows that he's going to be the workhorse.

  • The defense will be insanely fun to watch.
Just like it has been the case for the past couple of years, the defense will be the heart and soul of this team. The front seven is one of the best in the league and I can't wait to see them wreak havoc in Dom Capers' blitzing schemes.

The defensive line will be strong up the middle with Keith Traylor and Vonnie Holiday. Traylor wasn't happy during Nick Saban's regime, but he's loving Cam Cameron so you know that he's energized to play. Jason Taylor and Matt Roth should be crazy on the edges and that brings us the linebackers. Zach Thomas, Channing Crowder and Joey Porter will be the three guys on who I'll be focusing on this year as I expect a lot from this unit.

The weak link of the defense is the secondary. Even though Will Allen is healthy and Travis Daniels is back in his rookie form, the secondary remains the weak part of this defense. The one positive is that if the front seven create put pressure on the opposing the Qb, that it'll make the job of the defensive backs a whole lot easier. You're not going to give up many big plays if the opposing QB is being pressured and hurried all the time.

  • Matt Roth, break out player.
Most people are expecting a break-out/Pro Bowl year from Channing Crowder and while I can see why, I'm going say that Matt Roth will be breaking out this year. Everyone knows that Crowder is a star in the making, but Matt Roth will start to make some heads turn this season.

Roth was a beast in college while playing for Iowa. He'd play with an anger and intensity that would make me piss my pants while watching safely from the comforts of my living room. I basically did cartwheels when he slipped to Miami in the '05 draft and I've been waiting for him to be unleashed ever since.

Roth will be a starter and if opposing offenses dare to double team the likes of Taylor, Porter, or Traylor, Roth will make them pay. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he'll get at least 8 sacks this year.

  • I love Saban's first draft, just like Cameron's first draft.
Say the name Nick Saban in South Florida and you'll probably get shot and even though he left me feeling very bitter after his two seasons on the job, I do admit that I loved his first draft. That '05 draft has brought 4 starters to this team and that's how you determine if a draft was successful or not. Ronnie Brown, Channing Crowder, Travis Daniels and Roth all figure to play very big roles this year and we can at least be thankful that Saban left that behind.

And yes, just like I love Saban's first draft, I'm really liking Cameron's first draft. Granted none of those guys have played a snap yet, I'm reading great things from them and I can't wait to see them on the field.

Ted Ginn is still probably 4th on the receiver depth chart but his speed and kick return abilities make me as giddy as a 3 year old. When this guy refines his rout running and learns the offense completely, it's going to be very fun to watch him run past defensive backs on the way to the endzone.

John Beck is the Qb of the future and I don't think that any Dolfan still wishes the team took Brady Quinn now. Just go and look at some film from Beck during his BYU days and I'll assure you that you'll be impressed.

Samson Satele and Drew Mormino figure to be starters and are going to be part of a nice offensive line down the road. With Vernon Carey, Anthony Alabi, Mormino, Satele and Rex Hadnot, Hudson Houck is building a solid O-line. These guys are all young and still have plenty to learn but I'm very curious to see this line 2 or 3 years down the road.

  • Not sure what to expect from the passing game.
Like I mentioned before, Ronnie Brown is going to be awesome but I'm really not sure what to expect from the passing game. Trent Green knows the offense and he's definitely a step up from the gimpy Daunte Culpepper that we started the season with last year, but the reality is that he's a 36 year old Qb coming off of a nasty injury. He's one hit away from being done.

The receivers have also been looking very nice in camp but that doesn't mean that it will translate onto the field. Chris Chambers has been great in camp, Derek Hagan has improved his drops and I'm hoping that we'll see that during the regular season as well. Chambers was statistically the worst receiver last year and that just won't cut it.

So yes, I really don't know what to expect from Green, Chambers, Hagan and I'm not expecting much yet from Ginn aside from returning kicks.

  • Outlook.
I know that Miami is about two years away from really contending so I'm not going to expect much this season. The defense will be sharp, the running game will be pleasant but the pass attack will probably struggle. A 36 year old qb behind a young and learning O-line usually spells trouble. But hey, Green and Co. might actually surprise us a little..

The division is very tough, the schedule is even tougher and I'm seeing this team at worst a 6-10 and at best a surprising 10-6. It will probably be somewhere in between but right now I'm not worried about contending or a play-off spot, I'm just looking for players to grow and improve.

I want to see the offensive line grow and gel together. I want Ronnie Brown to carry the offense. I want Ted Ginn and John Beck to keep improving and it's about time that we see something from Jason Allen. Anything from Jason Allen would be nice right now.

Either way, the pre-season starts tonight and I just can't wait.

2 comments:

Shorty said...

Should be a very interesting year to say the least...

Sanchez said...

Nice preview. It's kinda good to have low expectations from your team I reakon - that way anything good they do will feel amazing.